Despite the hit the electric vehicle (EV) market took from the pandemic, the transition to electric vehicles from internal combustion engines (ICE) is again gaining strength, and a number of metals are benefiting.
Here’s a look at what’s driving the EV market and how this trend is impacting demand for associated metals and metal recovery applications.
Demand in the EV Market
While the pandemic temporarily knocked the wind out of the EV market’s sails, experts say a resurgence is upon us as economies recover. One recent report estimated that the market will grow at a CAGR of more than 23% between 2021-2027.
Several factors are contributing to a quick turnaround in the EV market:
Mounting Focus on Sustainability
COVID has highlighted the interconnectivity of our daily lives, and how our habits impact the world around us in a way the world previously had not seen. This has further emphasized the importance of building a more sustainable society, and EVs are recognized as a key technology in this effort.
A number of entities have joined forces in a coalition aimed at reaching 100% EV sales in America by the year 2030. Known as the Zero Emission Transportation Association, or ZETA, the group consists of several heavy hitters, including Albamarle, ABB, Tesla, Uber, and more.
Numerous car makers have begun the transition toward electrification, pledging 100% adoption by a certain year in many cases. Auto giant General Motors (GM) recently announced that they would discontinue production of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, reaching 40% adoption before 2026, according to The Washington Post.
Declining Cost of EVs
As technology has advanced, the cost of batteries has gone down, and experts predict it will continue trending in that direction. Historically, cost has been a crucial barrier in widespread EV adoption, but battery manufacturers have recently come within reach of the critical $100 per-kWh price point at which the industry anticipates EVs will become competitive with traditional fossil-fueled vehicles, opening the door to widespread consumer sales.
A New Administration
Many car manufacturers are looking forward to a boost under the new Biden administration as well, which has promised to build a more sustainable future on American-made EVs. Biden has already called for the review of existing emissions standards, and EV incentives to both manufacturers and consumers are expected.
The newly inaugurated president has also vowed to replace government vehicles with an electric fleet.
Investment Abroad
China and Europe are also expected to continue their pattern of significant investment in electric vehicles, with a host of new battery megafactories in the planning stages or under construction already. Mining Magazine reported on recent Wood Mackenzie findings that lithium-ion battery capacity could quadruple by 2030.
Affected Materials
As with any major change in technology, widespread adoption and implementation of an electric vehicle fleet has the potential for major impacts on resource supply chains, and the metal markets on which EVs rely are seeing a flurry of activity.
Lithium (& Spodumene)
Not surprisingly, lithium is the first battery metal that comes to mind. Despite struggling over the past couple of years in an oversupply, the lithium market is turning around. Experts expect the market will more than double in the next four years alone, courtesy of demand for electric vehicle batteries.
This surge in demand has put a resurgence on mining spodumene, the primary hard-rock source of lithium.
Aluminum
While not an important component in mainstream battery production, aluminum plays a pivotal role in making EVs lightweight, without sacrificing strength.
CRU announced in 2018 that they expect aluminum demand from electric vehicles to increase ten-fold by 2030, relative to 2017 levels.
Battery chemistries incorporating aluminum are also being explored, which could further embed aluminum’s position in the EV market.
Copper
With its essential role in electrification, electric vehicles use significantly more copper compared to gas-powered vehicles, showing up in everything from the battery to rotors.
In addition to the batteries and vehicles themselves, the charging infrastructure required to support an electric vehicle fleet will also demand literal tons of copper. In 2019, Wood Mackenzie predicted that the electric vehicle industry would push copper consumption up 250% by 2030.
Nickel
The numerous benefits nickel brings to li-ion batteries, and particularly its ability to reduce cobalt content, has seen the otherwise stainless steel-destined metal witness increasing use in batteries for EVs. Roskill recently reported that they expect electric vehicles to drive nickel demand from just 92kt in 2020 to 2.6Mt by 2040.
As high-grade sulfide deposits of nickel become tapped out, many in the industry are wondering how nickel demand for batteries will be met. This has renewed interest in processing nickel laterite ores.
Push for Battery Recycling & Metal Recovery Strengthens
This unprecedented demand for metals, paired with the need to build a circular economy, is putting mounting focus on the need to create a closed-loop system for natural resources, one that can properly recycle li-ion batteries and recover valuable metals from wastes.
This has prompted a wave of process development services aimed at recovering the valuable components contained in batteries, e-waste, and other streams of waste that would otherwise end up in landfills and risk environmental contamination.
This is a trend the FEECO Innovation Center, with several batch- and pilot-scale rotary kilns, has seen first-hand. Through high-temperature thermal processing, metals can often be extracted from waste streams for reuse, providing value and mitigating many environmental risks. Drying and agglomeration tests for waste valorization applications are also available on-site.
Conclusion
As several factors combine to push the electric vehicle market forward, the metals needed to build EVs and their associated infrastructure are seeing extraordinary demand. Along for the ride are lithium, copper, nickel, and aluminum, each with a critical role in making EVs possible.
This drive in demand is also bolstering R&D activities around recycling lithium-ion batteries and recovering metals from waste streams – a crucial initiative in building a circular economy.
FEECO has been supplying the metals, minerals, and waste transformation industries with custom processing equipment, process development services, and parts and service support since 1951. For more information on our equipment or services, contact us today!